Our analyst Sam Larner returns to Planet Rugby and this week delves into Scotland’s performance against France at Murrayfield on Saturday.

I can’t claim to be a formula one fan but, as something of a sports obsessive, I will watch it when it’s on. That extends to practice sessions. In practice sessions teams will try out different strategies and so the times aren’t comparable. The World Cup warm-up games are the same. Even when teams put out their supposed strongest squads, it’s not clear if they are trying something new or if they stopped the hardcore fitness training one week or one day before the match. It means that analysing these games are hard because teams are trying to hide their tactics. However, there are some things we can pick-up. So what can we decipher from Scotland’s second performance against France?

First up, Scotland were disappointing when they played in Nice last weekend. They failed to score a try and conceded five. It looked like the Scottish train had run off the track. In Edinburgh they were far more impressive. They overcame two early tries to force their way back into the game and then take the victory in the second half. Which two things contributed to the hosts’ display?

Kick offs

I am pretty obsessed with kick offs. Plenty of time is devoted to lineouts and scrums but almost nothing to kick offs. When you think that 10 kick offs a game is probably on the low end, five kicked and five received, it’s odd that kick offs are ignored so much. Not in this article though. Scotland give the ball to Stuart Hogg at kick off time and he is able to do something impressive.

Anyone who is familiar with Tony Hawk’s Pro Skater video game series will be familiar with the cheat codes. You remove gravity, give yourself infinite balance, always skate at max speed. If you could do the same in a rugby game one of the things you would do is create a kicker who can kick it deep but also kick it very high. You can kick it short and compete but the risk is you lose the ball high up the field. You could also kick it long and, although you wouldn’t be able to compete, you would force the opposition to play from deep. In this first example Hogg achieves both. He lands the ball on the French 5m and he gives enough hang time that the Scottish team immediately put France under pressure.

The result is a ropey kick which barely gets beyond the French 22. The crowd have barely taken their seats and already Scotland have an attacking opportunity.

Scotland get another opportunity to kick off, sooner than they’d have ideally liked. Hogg shortens the length of the kick but he’s still landing it inside the French 22. The chase is better because the kick is shorter and France are immediately under pressure once again.

Scotland turn the ball over and they have another attacking opportunity in the French 22. It’s very simple, creating attacking opportunities in the opposition 22, and then scoring them is the key to winning rugby games. Scotland managed to steal two within the first five minutes. They didn’t convert either but that doesn’t negate the fact they created them. If you convert 33% of 22 chances then creating more of them will give you more points.

That’s not to say they always got it right. The third and final kick off of the game for Hogg was way too far and flat. It put France around 5m from their line but the Scottish players are more than 30m away from the receiver.

The result is a pressure-less kick which ends up 35m away from the Scottish line. Scotland lost yardage on their own kick off. Instead of putting pressure on France they poured the pressure on themselves. Hogg needs to be more consistent with his kicks. If he can keep dropping exceptional bombs on the receiving team then it might be that his running is a secondary weapon.

Predictable Attack

One thing that Scotland suffer from is a predictable attack. When it works well it can cut teams to shreds but, when it is stuttering, it can crumble. Scotland primarily play with a pod of three forwards with a playmaker out the back and another forward as an option for the playmaker, and then the remaining backs stood lined up behind the wide forward.

The plan is simple. It should tighten up the defenders, leaving space for the outside backs to run into. But that is reliant on the defence actually thinking the forwards are viable options. As soon as they stop thinking that, the defenders are no longer held in place by their threat.

Conclusion

Scotland are at a difficult point in their development. If they win their pool, which they are capable of, they will probably face New Zealand or South Africa. If they come runner up in their pool, which they are also capable of, they will face New Zealand or South Africa. Of course, the third option is that they don’t qualify at all. Japan are playing like a team who want to put on a show in front of their home fans, while Scotland and Ireland are limping towards this World Cup, especially so in the latter’s case.

Like with the formula one practices though, we don’t know if this is the sleekest, quickest car Scotland can put together or if this is a sluggish, overloaded car on the wrong tyres they are testing. Scottish fans will be hoping they haven’t reached top gear yet.